You’ve probably seen dramatic headlines predicting a housing market crash—but the full story is far less alarming. Let’s break down what’s actually going on and what experts expect for home prices over the next five years. (Spoiler: it’s not a crash.) The latest home price forecast reveals a trend toward steady, sustainable growth, not the dramatic dip some headlines would have you believe.
In some markets, prices are flattening or dipping slightly this year as housing inventory grows. That’s a normal reaction to rising supply. But when you zoom out and look at national trends, the outlook is much more stable than the headlines suggest. Here’s why that matters.
Fannie Mae’s latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), which gathered insights from over 100 housing market experts, shows prices are expected to continue rising over the next five years. The difference is that the growth will be slower and more sustainable. And that’s a positive shift for everyone. (see graph below):
The experts surveyed fall into three categories: the most optimistic, the most cautious, and the overall average. Here’s what their projections show:
- The average forecast is for 3.3% price growth per year through 2029.
- Optimists see closer to 5.0% annual growth.
- Pessimists still predict about 1.3% growth per year.
They don’t all agree on how fast prices will rise—but none are forecasting a significant national drop. That’s a key point. This shift toward steady growth is much healthier for the market than the rapid spikes we’ve seen in recent years.
Some areas may still experience flat prices or small drops, especially where inventory is increasing. Others may see faster appreciation, particularly where housing supply remains tight. But overall, this cooling trend means price increases are stabilizing, not collapsing.
Even the most conservative projections show prices climbing over the next five years. That’s because lending standards remain strong, foreclosure rates are low, and homeowners have record levels of equity—factors that help protect against a major downturn. If you’ve been holding off on buying a home in Raleigh, waiting for a crash, you could be waiting a long time.
Bottom Line
If you’re unsure about making a move, now’s the time to gain clarity. The market isn’t headed for a crash—it’s shifting toward slow, steady growth. The current home price forecast suggests continued appreciation, even if it’s more moderate than recent years. Want to know how that plays out in the Triangle area? Contact Linda Craft Team Realtors to talk about what local data means for your next steps.